Mathematics | Course : Model Geometry (Traditional Pathway)
Domain - Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability
Cluster - Understand independence and conditional probability and use them to interpret data from simulations or experiments.
[GEO.S-CP.A.3] - Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B.*
- Probability
A number between 0 and 1 used to quantify likelihood for processes that have uncertain outcomes (such as tossing a coin, selecting a person at random from a group of people, tossing a ball at a target, testing for a medical condition).
[GEO.S-CP.A.1] -
Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events (“or,” “and,” “not”).*
[GEO.S-CP.A.4] -
Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each object being classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities.* For example, collect data from a random sample of students in your school on their favorite subject among math, science, and English. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected student from your school will favor science given that the student is in tenth grade. Do the same for other subjects and compare the results.
[GEO.S-CP.A.5] -
Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations.* For example, compare the chance of having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have lung cancer.
[GEO.S-CP.B.6] -
Find the conditional probability of A given B as the fraction of B’s outcomes that also belong to A, and interpret the answer in terms of the model.*
[AQR.S-CP.B.8] -
(+) Apply the general Multiplication Rule in a uniform probability model, P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A) = P(B)P(A|B), and interpret the answer in terms of the model.*